RFK DROPS OUT

On Friday, August 23rd, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy II suspended his long-shot campaign for President of the United States.

The campaign reached its conclusion after initially beginning as an attempt to challenge incumbent President Joe Biden for the Democratic Party’s nomination; however, in October of 2023, Kennedy changed his party allegiance to run on the Independent ballot. 

At his highest electoral point, RFK never polled more than 11%, staying between 10% and 8% for nearly the entirety of his campaign. This continued until July 21st when President Biden decided to not seek a second term as President. Since July 20th Kennedy never received more than 6%. 

As expected by the modern election system, the Presidential Election is now a two-person contest between current Vice President Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket and former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.

While there are other forms of third-party candidates (such as Jill Stein and Cornel West), they do not poll enough to even be included in mainstream polling aggregates.

As of August 21st, RFK polled at 4.7%

The question remains: which candidate will receive the majority of support from the dropping out?

The answer is uncertain. Instead, there are numerous hypothetical scenarios that may occur. There is a possibility that Harris gains the most as voters who are dissatisfied with Biden may be more open to voting for Harris. Trump may gain the most support as a result of an endorsement from Kennedy. Finally, there is, of course, the possibility that neither candidate will gain the most votes as many supporters of RFK continue to pledge their support to him and may just not participate in the 2024 Presidential Election.

(All polling percentages provided are from the 538 polling aggregate)